Fantasy Baseball Advice: 2-Start Ps (July 31)

By Dave Longnecker

Take one glance at the Week 18 MLB schedule and you’ll notice the number of intra-division matchups. In fact, 14 of this week’s two-start pitchers will face a team within their division in both starts. As we enter the fifth month of the season, this is when the pennant races truly heat up.

While weeks such as this excite the baseball fan, they tend to make the fantasy baseball fan feel a bit nervous and cautious. Opposing offenses face divisional opponents more often, which can be both good and bad. On the bad news side, which I prefer to get out of the way first, teams have a better feel for an opposing pitcher and more experience hitting against him. However, the good news is that the more history a pitcher has against a team, the more split statistics you can study, which leads to you feeling more confident about your decision to start or bench them.

The upper tier of two-start pitchers for the upcoming week includes 10 pitchers whom I would start with hardly a moment’s hesitation. “Doc” Halladay tops the list as the perfect prescription for any ailing fantasy staff, with two opponents against whom he’s thrown complete games against this season. He has allowed a combined three earned runs in those games in 34 innings. Can you say dominant?

American League wins leader David Price will look to beat the Blue Jays for the fourth time this season, while rookie sensation Mat Latos has a 7-2/2.63/0.98 line in 11 road starts this season, making them both no-brainers.

Yovani Gallardo has already notched wins against both the Cubs and Astros this season. Johan Santana makes me a bit nervous, as his last start was brutal and he got rocked by the Phillies earlier this season. However, you don’t draft your aces to sit them on the bench. If you would rather err on the side of caution, make your decision based on your league format. Those setting weekly lineups should roll with their aces, while daily head-to-head and total points league owners would be wise to consider benching Santana in his second outing this week. Salary-cap folks will have to weigh the risk against his $49 price tag.

Colby Lewis has beaten Seattle twice this season, but lost to Oakland twice. Veteran Tim Hudson has allowed more than three earned runs in just two starts all season. Carl Pavano’s impressive (and surprising) season continues, as he twice takes his mustache on the road this week, where he has been more successful than at home.

This brings us to the first weekly “Who Am I?” question.

Hint No. 1: I’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts.

Hint No. 2: Despite my fantastic ERA, WHIP and K/BB ratio, I’m just 4-3 on the season.

Hint No. 3: Fewer than half of fantasy leagues consider me worthy of a roster spot.

Answer: I am Vicente Padilla. This week I face the Padres and Nationals, who both hit under .250 on the road. In other words, if you need a pitching boost, give me a shot. If you already own me, start me.

The middle tier of this week’s two-start pitchers begins with John Lackey, whose last three starts have been terrific. For what it’s worth, he also beat the Yankees in his first start of the season.

Earlier this season, the Rockies and Braves both tuned Jonathan Sanchez up nicely. Trevor Cahill and Jason Vargas both draw the Royals and Rangers, who boast the American League’s second- and third-best batting averages.

A.J. Burnett is coming off back-to-back wins and hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts, but it’s a big leap from Cleveland and Kansas City to Toronto and Boston. While he has been much better at home, his season numbers against both of this week’s opponents are ugly.

As for Edwin Jackson, he’s allowed 22 earned runs in 27.1 innings pitched in his five starts since throwing a no-hitter. If that’s not enough to make you shy away from starting him, consider the fact that he also pitches worse at home.

With Joel Pineiro out for at least six weeks, the Angles have not yet announced whether they will stick with Scot Shields in the rotation, call up newly signed Ryan Vogelsong or make a different move, so avoid that situation altogether.

There isn’t much to say about the remainder of the list, other than start them at your own risk.

In closing, one note about teams with seven games this week- the White Sox and Tigers are both off on Monday, but play a double-header on Tuesday, so plan accordingly.

TWO-START PITCHERS

Roy Halladay (Phillies) -- @FLA, NYM

David Price (Rays) -- MIN, @TOR

Mat Latos (Padres) -- @LAD, @ARI

Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) -- @CHC, HOU

Johan Santana (Mets) -- @ATL, @PHI  

Colby Lewis (Rangers) -- @SEA, @OAK 

Tim Hudson (Braves) -- NYM, SF

Jaime Garcia (Cardinals) -- HOU, @FLA

Carl Pavano (Twins) -- @TB, @CLE

Vicente Padilla (Dodgers) -- SD, WAS

John Lackey (Red Sox) -- CLE, @NYY

Jeff Niemann (Rays) -- MIN, @TOR

Mark Buehrle (White Sox) -- @DET, @BAL

Ted Lilly (Cubs) -- MIL, CIN

Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) -- @COL, @ATL

Trevor Cahill (Athletics) -- KC, TEX 

Jason Vargas (Mariners) -- TEX, KC

Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers) -- SD, WAS

A.J. Burnett (Yankees) -- TOR, BOS

Josh Beckett (Red Sox) -- CLE, @NYY

Derek Lowe (Braves) -- NYM, SF

Brandon Morrow (Blue Jays) -- @NYY, TB

Edwin Jackson (Diamondbacks) -- WAS, SD 

Livan Hernandez (Nationals) -- @ARI, @LAD

Fausto Carmona (Indians) -- @BOS, MIN

Clayton Richard (Padres) -- @LAD, @ARI

Brian Duensing (Twins) -- @TB, @CLE

LAA TBA -- @BAL, @DET     

Brian Bannister (Royals) -- @OAK, @SEA

Paul Maholm (Pirates) -- CIN, COL

Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles) -- LAA, CHW

Mitch Talbot (Indians) -- @BOS, MIN

Aaron Cook (Rockies) -- SF, @PIT

Ross Ohlendorf (Pirates) -- CIN, COL         

Scott Olsen (Nationals) -- @ARI, @LAD

Travis Wood (Reds) -- @PIT, @CHC

Alex Sanabia (Marlins) -- PHI, STL

Wesley Wright (Astros) -- @STL, @MIL

Seven-Game Teams

Arizona

Atlanta

Boston

Cleveland

Chicago White Sox

Detroit

Los Angeles Dodgers

Minnesota

Pittsburgh

San Diego

Tampa Bay

Washington

Dave Longnecker is a contributing writer for World Fantasy Games.

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