NFL Fantasy Football Advice: K.C. Chiefs Breakdown

By Matt Schauf

This is the 15th in a series of 32 team breakdowns to accompany our Wednesday and Thursday breakdowns on the Fantasy Lunch on The Fantasy Sports Channel.

Who was fantasy-worthy last year?

Jamaal Charles’ 2009 serves as a good example of why you can’t sleep on any of your turns in the draft. Even the folks who liked his upside last year weren’t drafting Charles until after Round 10. From Week 10 on, though, anyone who owned Charles enjoyed the best fantasy back in the league not named Chris Johnson.

After topping out at six carries through the first half of the schedule (and bottoming out at being benched in Week 2, apparently as some sort of motivational ploy from coach Todd Haley), Charles carried at least 14 times in each of the final eight weeks. He averaged 20 rushes per game over that stretch and 5.9 yards per carry for the season, putting up all eight of his total touchdowns in the season’s second half. That’s top half of Round 1 performance from a pick in the double-digit rounds.

Thomas Jones, meanwhile, was back east in New Jersey, putting forth arguably his best pro season for the Jets. Despite turning 31 right before the games started, Jones compiled the second most carries in the league en route to a top 10 fantasy season across formats. Amid career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns, about the only thing Jones didn’t do was catch passes. (His 10 receptions constituted half of his previous low for a season.) That was by his team’s design, though, rather than an indicator of limitation.

Elsewhere, Dwayne Bowe stayed worthwhile – at least from a statistical perspective – when he actually made it onto the field. A suspension for performance-enhancing drugs cost him four games, and injury took away another. In his 11 games, though, Bowe still managed to lead the team in receptions (47), catching at least four balls in eight of those games and scoring four touchdowns before the Week 8 bye. It would have been interesting to see what he could have done in an uninterrupted campaign.

Although Bowe’s absence hurt his team, it helped Chris Chambers. The mid-year import from the division-rival Chargers (who cut him) caught two touchdown passes in his Week 9 Chiefs debut and managed 33 more receptions and two 100-yard games over the final eight weeks. Even having Bowe on the field didn’t squelch Chambers’ production, as he caught 19 passes – and enjoyed one of his 100-yard efforts – in the five games the two shared.

What has changed?

The biggest change happened in the middle of last year and helped clear the way for Charles, with Larry Johnson finally earning himself a release and a “good riddance.” The addition of Jones brings an older back into Johnson’s vacated space, but a disappointing and injury-affected start to his career helped limit the early wear on Jones. He might seem like an aberration at the position because of his production beyond 30, but last year was only the sixth season in which Jones got at least 150 handoffs.

It’s obvious the Chiefs believe that he’ll continue to produce, or they wouldn’t have brought him in. It’s also obvious that the team knows Charles doesn’t have the type of body that can average 20 carries all season. The question, obviously, is just how the workload will be split and the effect that will have on Charles’ value. I’ll get to my answer for that in the next section.

The other big change on offense is the addition of Charlie Weis to coordinate the offense. We all know that Weis’ last NFL stop was in New England, where he spent five years running the offense. The final four of those seasons were the first four of the Tom Brady era and saw the Pats rank among the top 12 in scoring each time (thrice among the top 10). It’s a bit surprising, however, that only one of those offenses (2004) finished among the league’s top half in yards. Then again, when your top running back is Antowain Smith and best receivers guys like Troy Brown, Deion Branch and David Givens …

I guess the key takeaway there is that the Weis offenses produced despite not necessarily working with the strongest parts. They also flitted between leaning on the run and the pass, with Brady reaching a career-high 601 pass attempts in 2002 and twice attempting fewer than 475 throws. It seems as though we should expect Weis to use what works as opposed to trying to force the passing or running game.

Other, relatively minor, additions included the drafting of tight end Tony Moeaki and signing of veteran wideout Jerheme Urban. I don’t think either merits a ton of mention in the next two sections, so I’ll say that Moeaki should be the team’s top tight end this year but shouldn’t be counted on for more than 40 receptions (as a ceiling). Urban is a solid guy for a quarterback to have around, but it’s tough to imagine him getting enough looks to be worthwhile in fantasy.

Who looks good in fantasy football drafts?

You can create questions for pretty much any player as the draft approaches. I’m betting on Jamaal Charles this year, though.

It took the guy only 190 carries and 40 catches last season to be a top 10 fantasy back. Like I said before, he won’t be a 20-times-a-game guy this year, but would the Chiefs really drop him below 14 or 15 a week? I don’t see why they would, as it’s not exactly hard to figure that Charles is their best offensive skill guy. Just 12 carries a game would give him 192 for the season, and getting spelled by Jones should help Charles maintain a rushing average of better than 5 yards.

Will Jones vulture some touchdowns? Yeah, probably. Between his running and receiving, though, Charles should be able to get near his eight total scores from 2009. Give him 200 carries at 5.5 yards per (0.4 less than he averaged last season) and conservatively leave him at 40 catches for 320 yards, and it all comes out to the production of a top 15 PPR back. I think those are pretty modest numbers to look for from Charles, considering those numbers equated to a score more than 40 points lower than what he did in about half a season last year.

I like Charles as a first-round PPR pick this season, right behind Michael Turner because of the consistent scoring from the Falcons back. The only way I’m letting Charles past me in Round 2 – as I did in the latest mock draft for Fantasy Football Toolbox -- if the No. 1 receiver well is drying up and one of my top guys remains (Roddy White, in this case). The Pros and players in RapidDraft free fantasy football seem to agree with me so far, as Charles is going ninth in the most recent RD average draft position rankings.

Jones, meanwhile, can be found amid the hundreds – 111 overall, on average, to be exact. That puts the veteran in the Round 9 range, which is certainly a decent time to grab him. Who knows just what the workload split will look like and whether Charles will hold up over a full season? I certainly think Jones’ PPR ceiling is limited, and you won’t find him on too many of my times, but I won’t quibble with him at this point.

Bowe’s RD ADP places him in the middle of Round 5 right now, while his upside lives somewhere higher than that. Bowe has been anything but dependable so far in his career (unless you count being dependably undependable), between the off-field stuff and catch rates consistently around 55 percent. That said, his 2009 pace for targets would have put him at 126 over 16 games, which would have ranked 17^th in the league at the position. That total probably would have been larger, though, if not for at least a couple of other injury-affected games, and Bowe saw 157 targets over a full season in 2008.

If he’s out there, the Chiefs will send the ball his way. Bowe should be good for at least 70 to 75 catches if he plays the full season, and the offense should be stronger overall, translating to more scoring opportunities. The “if,” of course, makes him a big risk before, say, the middle of Round 4.

Of course, the fortunes of both receivers tie directly to any success that Matt Cassel might realize. He did not perform well last season, especially according to the advanced metrics at FootballOutsiders.com, but he was also in a rotten situation in his first season with a new team. However, Cassel did boast six games in which he threw two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Five came in losses – which will encourage more passing – but it’s at least a silver lining. Add that to the really good season he had as a first-time starter in 2008 after Brady’s injury, and there’s at least hope.

Cassel is going off the RapidDraft board as the 20^th quarterback, which puts him squarely in the middle of backup range. Facing a Week 7 visit from Jacksonville, Cassel looks like a good guy to pair with Matt Schaub or Peyton Manning, who will have byes that week. A Week 6 matchup with Houston also makes Cassel an option to team with Carson Palmer.

Who doesn’t?

Chambers is a potential steal in drafts that see him make it beyond Round 10, but you’ll have trouble finding that here. He’s averaging a seventh-round position among Pros and consumers, which puts Chambers in starting range.

I certainly see the upside here, based on his production after coming over in 2009, but touchdowns could be hard to come by regularly with a healthy and available Bowe and the two backs. I like Chambers as a fourth or fifth receiver, from whom you only need spot duty and can hope for something beyond. Trusting the beyond is a bit harder for me to do.

The D

I tend to write too much as it is, and my mom always used to tell me, “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”

Here’s the nice: Eric Berry could be excellent and brings much-needed youth at safety. Tamba Hali seems a natural fit at 3-4 outside linebacker, too. Thus ends what I have to say about the Chiefs defense.

IDPs

Let’s pick back up with Berry here, as I think he has top five potential at his position if he stays healthy this year. Berry is a very willing tackler who will play behind a less-than-stellar set of linebacker in a defense that faced the fourth most plays in the league last year. He also brings the big-play chops of a guy who picked off 14 passes over three college seasons. Think Tyvon Branch with better coverage skills.

Defensive back tends to be an easy place to find fantasy value, but the flipside of not having to jump early is that you can take a chance on immense upside and know that insurance will be around. I drafted Berry as the ninth DB in the BlogTalkRadio Hosts Gold league.

Hali might be the best player on the Kansas City defense, but his value will be limited in the typical tackle-centered format. Hali’s 26 hurries ranked 11^th in the league last year and indicate upside beyond his 8.5 sacks, but the team has yet to get him much help in the pass rush. It won’t be easy to realize more of that upside this season, and he didn’t increase his tackles at all in moving from 4-3 end to linebacker.

Brandon Flowers is the other given on this defense. He provides OK tackle numbers for a corner and picked off five passes in his second season. That said, he’s also not a special numbers producer and is more of a late fill-in (or waiver-wire) IDP than someone you target in the typical draft.

LB Derrick Johnson hasn’t been a special producer to this point in his career either, going from being picked in the top half of Round 1 in 2005 to starting just three games last season. The reason he’s still around, though, is because he has the talent of a first-round pick. If things finally click for Johnson and he can win a starting inside job (which should be very doable, if he’s motivated), he has distinct sleeper potential. Johnson picked off six passes over the past three years, including two returned for touchdowns in a single game last season, and has twice produced at least four sacks in a year.

Should Demorrio Williams win an inside job again, he’ll continue to be an OK, low-ceiling IDP option.

The kicker

Just like in the team defense section, there’s not much reason to belabor this point. Ryan Succop finished 16^th among NFL kickers in scoring as a rookie. That’s fine, nothing to get too enthused about. Before that, he hit just 20 of 30 field goal attempts in his final college season. He missed just four in each of the prior two years, but that’s enough to tell me I have no reason to trust Succop in a mediocre (at best offense).

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63). Catch the Fantasy Lunch on BTR’s Fantasy Sports Channel every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

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