NFL: Running Back Breakdown (1-10)

By Eric Huber

Are you concerned about CJ2K living up to his name in 2K10? Do you think MJD will have fantasy owners saying “UFB?” And is Michael Turner's current ADP starting to make you LOL? Let me break things down to give you a valid piece of mind and accurate gauge for formulating your own opinions.

 

Instructions: Each player listed here is in the order of current RapidDraft.com current average draft position (as of July 27). The splits are pretty much self-explanatory, but the forecasted fantasy SOS is based on the number of fantasy points allowed in 2009 to running backs by each of the defenses that player will face.

 

CHRIS JOHNSON

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 2,006 (1)

Against the AFC South (6 games) -- 121 carries, 806 yards, 4 rushing TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 18 carries, 18 yards, 4 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 2,592 (2)

Receptions per game -- 3.1

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 18^th easiest

Current ADP -- 1.7

Huber’s Analysis: Obviously Johnson’s streak of 11 straight 100-yard games (12 overall) and the fact that he accounted for 77.3% of his team’s rushing yards were unbelievable feats. However, at the same time, his goal-line struggles (22.2% conversion rate) should raise a red flag, especially considering he‘s currently the highest-ranked player by ADP. Overall, I have to say that Johnson’s 2009 season wasn’t a fluke, but when I’m looking for the top player I’m looking for the whole package. Johnson isn’t quite that yet.

 

MAURICE JONES-DREW

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,391 (4)

Against the AFC South (6 games) -- 109 carries, 593 yards, 8 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 26 carries, 45 yards, 9 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 2,029 (10)

Receptions per game -- 3.3

Forecasted Fantasy SOS -- 8^th easiest

Current ADP -- 1.9

Huber’s Analysis: MJD’s breakdown looks almost perfect, doesn’t it? In fact, after the initial numbers crunching, I was so ready to crown him as Huber’s No. 1 overall pick, but then a little fantasy bug whispered to me. He said, “Of Jones-Drew’s 15 rushing touchdowns, 13 of them came in the first 11 games, and from weeks 12-17 the dynamic runner rushed for 100 yards just once.” I tried to swat it away, but it was like a wasp trying to inject fantasy intelligence into me. So I listened and came to the conclusion that MJD’s dip in fantasy production at the back half of the 2009 season was enough to turn me away. Instead, I’ll wait for him to come to me at No. 3 or 4 overall.

 

ADRIAN PETERSON

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,383 (5)

Against the NFC North (6 games) -- 132 carries, 556 yards, 8 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 38 carries, 72 yards, 15 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1918 (13)

Receptions per game -- 2.7

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 22^nd easiest

Current ADP -- 2.7

Huber’s Analysis: Aside from his fumbling problems, there’s not much I can complain about when it comes to Peterson’s overall talent and production. I mean, he finished in the top five in rushing yards. He played very well against the Packers, Lions and Bears (at least one touchdown in every game). And much to the delight of PPR owners, his receptions per game went from just over 1 to 2.7. My only complaint is that his yards per carry have slowly declined since his rookie season -- from 5.6 down to 4.4. In the end, though, there is no doubt that Peterson is a safe bet, especially if you’re not selecting him out of the top spot as his current ADP indicates.

 

RAY RICE

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,339 (6)

Against the AFC North (6 games) -- 106 carries, 483 yards, 3 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 12 carries, 41 yards, 3 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 2,200 (5)

Receptions per game -- 4.9

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 14^th easiest

Current ADP -- 4.0

Huber’s Analysis: There are a few things good and bad that standout here. The good is that Rice is definitely a must-have in PPR and yardage leagues, as he led all running backs in receptions and ranked sixth in rushing yardage. However, my one big concern is that he only scored three touchdowns in goal-to-go situations, and I suspect that to be around the same in 2010 with Willis McGahee filling that short-yardage role once again. What’s most intriguing though, is the fact that the Ravens’ quarterbacks and wide receivers have a fantasy SOS of 32, as in the 32^nd easiest. Plus, with the offseason acquisition of Anquan Boldin, defenses may become less inclined to crowd the trenches, which should bode well for Rice’s yards per carry. Overall, Rice could very well be the total package, but with really just one year of solid stats, I’m a little hesitant to deem him as my top running back.

 

FRANK GORE

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,120 (T-11)

Against the NFC West (5 games) -- 95 carries, 536 yards, 6 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 17 carries, 45 yards, 6 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1,600 (25)

Receptions per game -- 3.3

Forecasted Fantasy SOS -- 3^rd easiest

Current ADP -- 6.4

Huber’s Analysis: I have mixed feelings on Gore. He has good overall splits for a running back who played in only 14 games, accounted for 70% of his team’s rushing yards and faces the second easiest schedule of any running back listed here in the top 10. However, I have to point out that he rushed for fewer than 35 yards five times and fell short of 75 seven times. As a whole, I believe if Gore is to have a top five-type fantasy season, he’s going to need a good complementary runner to take some of the burden off his shoulders. I just don’t think he’ll be able to handle a heavy beating, especially if the 49ers focus a little bit more on smash-mouth football like I expect them to.

 

JAMAAL CHARLES

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,120 (11)

Against the AFC West (5 games) -- 79 carries, 544 yards, 5 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 8 carries, 18 yards, 3 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1929 (11)

Receptions per game -- 2.6

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 1st easiest

Current ADP -- 9.0

Huber’s Analysis: Every time I think about Jamaal Charles, I always think back to earlier this year when I talked with a traveling Chiefs fan who was obsessed with how talented Charles is and how fast he truly looked in person. But then I think about Thomas Jones' production in 2009 and the way he's going to affect J.C.'s fantasy numbers in 2010. The angel on my right shoulder then gives me the positive vibe back when I look at the Chiefs’ easiest fantasy SOS. Furthermore, I really go man-gaga over Charles' 5.9 yards per carry -- but am turned back off again by his 658 yards in the final four games of 2009, almost 60% of his total for the entire season. So in other words, as a whole, I'm a little unsure about his consistency and overall production to begin the season but am confident he could put up astonishing totals to finish 2010. Taking him this early, is just too risky. If he falls to you early in Round 3, you may be on your way to a fantasy championship.

 

MICHAEL TURNER

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 871 (19)

Against the NFC South (4 games) -- 69 carries, 400 yards, 2 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 13 carries, 27 yards, 7 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1,876 (15)

Receptions per game -- .45

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 13^th easiest

Current ADP -- 9.5

Huber’s Analysis: Fantasy owners will have sweet dreams of Benjamins fluttering upon stealing Michael Turner in the middle of the first round. Why? Well, for missing five games (six if you take out his one carry against the Jets) he still found the end-zone 10 times in his first eight starts, recorded four 100-yard games and ranked 19th in rushing yards. The only factor holding him out of the top five right now is his injury concerns. Overall though, as stated above, I would be plenty happy with selecting Turner in the middle of the first round and believe he will finish in the top three overall if he can stay healthy for the full 16 games.

 

STEVEN JACKSON

Rushing Yards (NFL rank) -- 1,416 (2)

Against the NFC West (5 games) -- 106 carries, 414 yards, and two touchdowns

Goal-to-go situations -- 14 carries, 16 yards, and three touchdowns

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1,784 (20)

Receptions per game -- 3.5

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 5^th easiest

Current ADP -- 12.2

Huber’s Analysis: Jackson’s numbers are essentially bi-polar. Sure, he finished second in the NFL in rushing yards and accounted for about 80 percent of his team’s rushing yards, but three touchdowns around the goal line for a running back built like a Mack truck is not an appetizing thought in the first round. Plus, the last time he carried the rock at least 300 times, he ended up playing just 12 games the following season while lowering his rushing yards per game by 12. Although it’s hard to ignore Jackson's sweet fantasy SOS, and the fact that he has been solid in the rushing yards department the past two seasons, I’m just too turned off by Jackson’s lack of touchdown potential in 2010. Ultimately, I'm taking a pass in the first round but wouldn’t mind snagging him in the second.

 

RASHARD MENDENHALL

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,108 (14)

Against the AFC North (5 games) -- 87 carries, 282 yards, 2 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 18 carries, 28 yards, 7 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 1,793 (19)

Receptions per game -- 1.6

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 12^th easiest

Current ADP -- 12.7

Huber’s Analysis: I’m truly worried about Mendenhall and his ability to build on his 2009 campaign. Not only will Big Ben not be leading the offense to start the season, but the team rid itself of big-play receiver Santonio Holmes. I know if I were an opposing defensive coordinator, I would be inclined to crowd the line and force the Steelers to beat me with their less-experienced receivers outside of Hines Ward. Yes, Mendenhall may indeed get more carries to start the season, but I’m not sure he can overcome the crowded boxes (especially behind a line that has already lost starting tackle Willie Colon). Overall, he’s a great option for touchdown leagues as indicated above, but in yardage and PPR leagues Mendenhall could struggle to meet the late first- or early second-round expectations, especially considering he had limited success with Mr. Roethlisberger under center against his own division in 2009.

 

DEANGELO WILLIAMS

Rushing yards (NFL rank) -- 1,117 (13)

Against the NFC South (4 games) -- 86 carries, 472 yards, 5 TDs

Goal-to-go situations -- 10 carries, 27 yards, 3 TDs

Team rushing yards (Rank) -- 2,498 (3)

Receptions per game -- 2.2

Forecasted fantasy SOS -- 10th easiest

Current ADP -- 13.2

Huber’s Analysis: Williams certainly didn't live up to expectations after breaking out in 2008 for 1,515 yards and 20 total touchdowns. However, he did record four 100-yard games and scored three touchdowns in goal-to-go situations despite the Panthers having the powerful Jonathan Stewart around. At the same time, Williams recorded a goose egg in the touchdown column in eight of the 13 games he appeared in (61.5%) and ran for fewer than 75 yards in a game five times. In other words, his lack of consistency is definitely a red flag. Plus, because Jonathan Stewart has been such an important part of the Panthers’ offense he has sliced into Williams' production and will continue to do so in 2010. There is no doubt in my mind that the Panthers’ rushing attack will be potent again, especially considering that it will face the 10th easiest fantasy schedule. I have to be honest, though, and express emphatically that I'm not taking Williams this early -- especially because I can grab the more valuable Stewart almost three rounds later in formats such the one used here at RapidDraft.com.

Thanks for reading!

Next up: Running backs 11-25.

Eric Huber is a staff writer for World Fantasy Games. You can follow him on Twitter (EricHuber12).

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